tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 339 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 339 Southwest Flight history → BUR 09:20 RNO 10:40 9% 3% 0.6% 92%
WN 843 Southwest Flight history → BUR 20:55 RNO 22:20 28% 10% 0.6% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 09:45 → SLC 12:43DL 3681 · flown by SkyWest 3h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 7h 07m 98% 89%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:15 → LAS 08:30WN 785 1h 35m Las Vegas LAS 10:05 → RNO 11:30WN 1007 4h 15m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 08:20 → LAS 09:30WN 786 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 10:40 → RNO 12:10WN 4685 3h 50m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607 6h 53m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 5h 09m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → BUR 09:16 → PHX 10:52AA 3992 · flown by Envoy 3h 05m Phoenix PHX 13:57 → RNO 15:51AA 4165 · flown by Envoy 6h 35m 100% 84%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 14:09 → PDX 16:26AS 1383 1h 29m Portland PDX 17:55 → RNO 19:31AS 1616 5h 22m 97% 82%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 09:40 → LAS 10:50WN 4724 1h 45m Las Vegas LAS 12:35 → RNO 14:05WN 652 4h 25m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 1h 06m San Francisco SFO 21:16 → RNO 22:38UA 5983 · flown by SkyWest 3h 56m 70% 55%
UnitedDetails → BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854 55m San Francisco SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58UA 1757 3h 36m 62% 46%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 15:40 → LAS 16:50WN 791 55m Las Vegas LAS 17:45 → RNO 19:10WN 2012 3h 30m 64% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON