Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 444 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–41%.

Safest bet that day AS 444 BUR 07:03 → SEA 09:44 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 703 BUR 18:39 → SEA 21:20 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 444 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 07:03	SEA 09:44	20%	3%	1.4%	86%
AS 720 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 10:10	SEA 12:52	26%	4%	1.5%	88%worse than usual
AS 537 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 14:52	SEA 17:34	32%	7%	1.5%	78%worse than usual
AS 580 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 13:21	SEA 16:03	34%	5%	1.4%	90%worse than usual
AS 347 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 19:58	SEA 22:39	36%	8%	1.8%	78%worse than usual
AS 703 Alaska Flight history →	BUR 18:39	SEA 21:20	41%	8%	1.6%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON