Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 488 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 488 BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 827 BUR 08:55 → SFO 10:15 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 19% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 488 United Flight history →	BUR 07:02	SFO 08:30	22%	7%	0.9%	80%
UA 357 United Flight history →	BUR 16:13	SFO 17:41	30%	14%	0.8%	46%
UA 1508 United Flight history →	BUR 18:42	SFO 20:10	32%	15%	0.8%	41%
WN 833 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 16:30	SFO 17:55	32%	16%	1.5%	46%
UA 2854 United Flight history →	BUR 20:22	SFO 21:50	34%	13%	0.8%	53%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	BUR 13:45	SFO 15:13	37%	13%	0.8%	66%
UA 2386 United Flight history →	BUR 10:53	SFO 12:21	37%	13%	0.8%	52%
WN 2165 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 13:15	SFO 14:35	39%	13%	1.7%	53%
WN 827 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 08:55	SFO 10:15	39%	14%	2.3%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON