Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 845 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 845 BUR 07:30 → SMF 08:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 853 BUR 18:35 → SMF 19:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 845 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 07:30	SMF 08:55	3%	1%	1.2%	98%
WN 2638 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 09:05	SMF 10:30	5%	2%	1.2%	96%
WN 4966 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 12:55	SMF 14:15	21%	5%	1.1%	82%
WN 851 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 14:00	SMF 15:20	22%	5%	1.1%	81%
WN 3474 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 16:10	SMF 17:35	26%	8%	1.0%	76%
WN 854 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 19:45	SMF 21:05	26%	9%	0.9%	82%
WN 853 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 18:35	SMF 19:55	33%	9%	0.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON