tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 09:35, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Albuquerque on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4528 Southwest Flight history → BWI 15:30 ABQ 17:30 23% 6% 0.5% 46%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 2 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 44m Houston IAH 10:00 → ABQ 11:25UA 3982 · flown by Mesa 7h 25m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709 1h 30m Chicago ORD 09:00 → ABQ 11:23UA 215 7h 08m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:50 → DAL 08:55WN 4403 1h 50m Dallas DAL 10:45 → ABQ 11:30WN 1253 6h 40m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:25 → LAS 08:25WN 973 2h 20m Las Vegas LAS 10:45 → ABQ 13:20WN 2175 8h 55m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:00 → PHX 08:50WN 1049 1h 25m Phoenix PHX 10:15 → ABQ 12:30WN 106 7h 30m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 09:05 → ABQ 10:12DL 1004 6h 32m 96% 85%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:35 → MDW 10:35WN 4217 1h 30m Chicago MDW 12:05 → ABQ 14:00WN 2719 6h 25m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109 6h 58m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON