Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 857 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 857 BWI 07:05 → ALB 08:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 858 BWI 22:30 → ALB 23:50 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 857 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:05	ALB 08:25	4%	1%	0.6%	90%
WN 155 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:55	ALB 12:15	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 164 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:25	ALB 14:45	15%	4%	0.6%	75%
WN 4355 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:20	ALB 18:40	20%	6%	0.6%	61%
WN 858 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:30	ALB 23:50	24%	6%	0.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON