Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4689 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 4689 BWI 06:20 → ATL 08:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 1079 BWI 19:21 → ATL 21:39 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4689 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:20	ATL 08:15	6%	1%	0.6%	97%
DL 2950 Delta Flight history →	BWI 05:40	ATL 07:31	6%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 1592 Delta Flight history →	BWI 10:33	ATL 12:24	7%	3%	0.6%	90%
WN 3931 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:20	ATL 10:20	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2562 Delta Flight history →	BWI 08:17	ATL 10:10	9%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 801 Delta Flight history →	BWI 11:52	ATL 13:41	9%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2579 Delta Flight history →	BWI 07:00	ATL 08:52	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 2711 Delta Flight history →	BWI 14:08	ATL 16:05	12%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 2799 Delta Flight history →	BWI 17:00	ATL 19:08	16%	4%	0.6%	78%
WN 862 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 11:55	ATL 13:45	16%	3%	0.6%	41%
DL 1267 Delta Flight history →	BWI 18:20	ATL 20:34	17%	5%	0.6%	74%
F9 2633 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 06:35	ATL 09:00	19%	6%	0.9%	77%
F9 4427 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 08:36	ATL 10:47	22%	6%	0.9%	76%
WN 4433 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:20	ATL 20:15	26%	7%	0.6%	64%
WN 4626 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:20	ATL 22:15	27%	8%	0.6%	57%
F9 2509 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 21:37	ATL 23:49	34%	13%	1.2%	55%
F9 1079 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 19:21	ATL 21:39	36%	13%	1.2%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON