Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 865 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 865 BWI 08:05 → AUS 10:30 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 867 BWI 13:50 → AUS 16:15 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 865 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:05	AUS 10:30	10%	2%	0.6%	84%
WN 866 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:40	AUS 12:05	15%	2%	0.6%	74%
WN 867 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:50	AUS 16:15	25%	5%	0.6%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487	55m Nashville	BNA 11:30 → AUS 13:40WN 450	4h 55m	88%	76%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	51m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886	5h 03m	80%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON