Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 869 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23%.

Safest bet that day WN 869 BWI 06:45 → BDL 08:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1879 BWI 22:55 → BDL 00:20 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 869 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:45	BDL 08:05	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 427 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:40	BDL 12:00	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
WN 1143 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:50	BDL 14:10	14%	3%	0.6%	82%
WN 428 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:10	BDL 18:30	23%	5%	0.6%	68%
WN 1879 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:55	BDL 00:20	23%	6%	0.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON