Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3656 at 15:35, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3656 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:35	BHM 16:40	20%	4%	0.6%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	6h 30m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	6h 07m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:25 → BNA 07:20WN 874	3h 25m Nashville	BNA 10:45 → BHM 11:40WN 434	6h 15m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BHM 09:57DL 3164	3h 57m	93%	85%
American Details →	BWI 10:28 → ORD 11:43AA 3446 · flown by Envoy	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 13:01 → BHM 15:01AA 3971 · flown by Envoy	5h 33m	97%	83%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:50 → DAL 08:55WN 4403	55m Dallas	DAL 09:50 → BHM 11:30WN 1271	5h 40m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034	7h 02m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163	5h 37m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BWI 18:40 → MCO 21:10WN 3777	1h 00m Orlando	MCO 22:10 → BHM 22:50WN 4829	5h 10m	74%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON