Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 874 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23%.

Safest bet that day WN 874 BWI 06:25 → BNA 07:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 687 BWI 19:55 → BNA 20:50 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 874 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:25	BNA 07:20	4%	1%	0.6%	90%
WN 487 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:45	BNA 10:35	9%	2%	0.6%	84%
WN 3245 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:05	BNA 14:00	17%	3%	0.6%	67%
WN 879 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:00	BNA 19:00	23%	6%	0.6%	64%
WN 687 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 19:55	BNA 20:50	23%	6%	0.7%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON