Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4566 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 4566 BWI 06:55 → BUF 08:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 768 BWI 17:55 → BUF 19:15 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4566 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:55	BUF 08:10	4%	1%	0.7%	86%
WN 762 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:50	BUF 12:05	7%	2%	0.7%	85%
WN 894 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:00	BUF 14:15	16%	4%	0.7%	79%
WN 4577 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:55	BUF 00:15	24%	7%	0.8%	68%
WN 768 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:55	BUF 19:15	26%	7%	1.2%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON