Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BWI 06:25 → LAS 08:25WN 973	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 09:40 → BUR 10:55WN 2198	7h 30m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10WN 995	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → BUR 12:25WN 2741	9h 15m	99%	83%
Southwest Details →	BWI 07:25 → DEN 09:15WN 935	2h 30m Denver	DEN 11:45 → BUR 13:20WN 579	8h 55m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	BWI 07:00 → PHX 08:50WN 1049	3h 55m Phoenix	PHX 12:45 → BUR 14:05WN 1493	10h 05m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483	10h 15m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	7h 39m	86%	78%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:50 → DAL 08:55WN 4403	3h 00m Dallas	DAL 11:55 → BUR 13:05WN 4076	9h 15m	99%	78%
Southwest Details →	BWI 13:05 → BNA 14:00WN 3245	1h 40m Nashville	BNA 15:40 → BUR 17:55WN 461	7h 50m	98%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BWI 14:50 → SFO 17:30WN 1101	1h 20m San Francisco	SFO 18:50 → BUR 20:15WN 4228	8h 25m	75%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON