Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 898 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 898 BWI 08:10 → CHS 09:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 184 BWI 20:15 → CHS 22:00 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 898 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:10	CHS 09:55	7%	1%	1.7%	90%
WN 899 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 11:35	CHS 13:15	13%	3%	0.8%	71%
WN 900 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:10	CHS 18:55	22%	5%	0.7%	62%
WN 184 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:15	CHS 22:00	27%	6%	0.8%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON