Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2670 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2670 BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 915 BWI 20:05 → CLT 21:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2670 American Flight history →	BWI 06:15	CLT 07:53	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
AA 1708 American Flight history →	BWI 05:02	CLT 06:26	6%	2%	0.7%	96%
WN 148 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:15	CLT 09:55	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
AA 1635 American Flight history →	BWI 10:06	CLT 11:39	9%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 846 American Flight history →	BWI 13:55	CLT 15:32	15%	5%	0.6%	72%
WN 914 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:50	CLT 15:25	19%	4%	0.6%	65%
AA 1637 American Flight history →	BWI 20:18	CLT 21:55	23%	6%	0.7%	63%
F9 3075 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 16:19	CLT 18:03	24%	11%	1.1%	71%
WN 915 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:05	CLT 21:45	28%	7%	0.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON