Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4435 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:45	CVG 00:30	20%	6%	0.7%	77%
WN 760 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:20	CVG 16:55	20%	5%	0.6%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	5h 45m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic	3h 40m Boston	BOS 11:40 → CVG 14:07DL 5598 · flown by Republic	7h 46m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:00 → BOS 10:38DL 5703 · flown by Republic	3h 34m Boston	BOS 14:12 → CVG 16:45DL 5789 · flown by Republic	7h 45m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:25 → BNA 07:20WN 874	2h 45m Nashville	BNA 10:05 → CVG 12:15WN 483	5h 50m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:11 → CVG 12:34DL 3149	5h 34m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	BWI 09:35 → MDW 10:35WN 4217	2h 25m Chicago	MDW 13:00 → CVG 15:10WN 1247	5h 35m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	6h 54m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	6h 08m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590	55m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → CVG 22:26UA 5785 · flown by SkyWest	4h 54m	73%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON