Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4403 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 4403 BWI 06:50 → DAL 08:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 693 BWI 20:00 → DAL 22:10 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4403 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:50	DAL 08:55	5%	1%	0.6%	83%
WN 930 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:15	DAL 10:25	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 931 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:35	DAL 11:45	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 932 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 14:15	DAL 16:15	19%	5%	0.6%	62%
WN 4365 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:20	DAL 20:30	28%	8%	0.6%	38%
WN 693 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:00	DAL 22:10	29%	9%	0.6%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON