Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4436 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 4436 BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest WN 939 BWI 16:40 → DEN 18:40 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4436 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:05	DEN 07:50	7%	1%	0.6%	76%
UA 2412 United Flight history →	BWI 08:30	DEN 10:25	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 935 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:25	DEN 09:15	11%	1%	0.6%	83%
WN 275 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:40	DEN 11:25	12%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 2012 United Flight history →	BWI 16:23	DEN 18:18	16%	5%	0.6%	79%
WN 937 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:50	DEN 14:35	20%	3%	0.6%	47%
WN 938 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:10	DEN 17:05	27%	5%	0.6%	65%
WN 4214 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:00	DEN 22:00	27%	7%	0.6%	71%
WN 939 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:40	DEN 18:40	29%	5%	0.6%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BWI 12:40 → MCI 14:15WN 3038	50m Kansas City	MCI 15:05 → DEN 15:55WN 1563	5h 15m	80%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON