Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1403 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1403 BWI 07:30 → DFW 09:55 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1626 BWI 19:17 → DFW 21:42 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1403 American Flight history →	BWI 07:30	DFW 09:55	12%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 2747 American Flight history →	BWI 12:00	DFW 14:27	15%	6%	0.8%	93%
F9 3787 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 14:25	DFW 16:58	22%	10%	0.7%	69%
AA 1629 American Flight history →	BWI 15:46	DFW 18:12	25%	8%	0.8%	57%
AA 1626 American Flight history →	BWI 19:17	DFW 21:42	29%	7%	1.0%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	49m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921	4h 53m	84%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON