tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709 1h 10m Chicago ORD 08:40 → EWR 12:06UA 2301 5h 51m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 1h 34m Charlotte CLT 08:00 → EWR 09:59AA 1782 4h 57m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 09:14 → EWR 12:56DL 2895 6h 36m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 2h 36m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 5h 48m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:37AA 1819 6h 22m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 41m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:16 → ORD 09:30UA 2749 2h 41m Chicago ORD 12:11 → EWR 15:39UA 606 7h 23m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 32m Houston IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402 8h 27m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → BWI 19:21 → ATL 21:39F9 1079 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 01:03 +1F9 4602 5h 42m 65% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON