Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4627 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 4627 BWI 06:15 → FLL 08:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 3072 BWI 20:15 → FLL 22:55 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4627 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:15	FLL 08:55	7%	1%	0.8%	95%
WN 4028 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:25	FLL 09:55	10%	2%	0.9%	100%worse than usual
B6 1795 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 06:09	FLL 08:50	13%	4%	1.3%	86%
WN 4785 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:50	FLL 12:20	15%	4%	0.8%	85%
WN 945 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:25	FLL 11:05	16%	3%	0.9%	82%
B6 2995 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 08:00	FLL 10:41	24%	5%	1.6%	80%
WN 4735 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:25	FLL 21:15	30%	10%	3.4%	53%
WN 947 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:00	FLL 19:45	31%	10%	2.0%	50%
B6 2595 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 16:00	FLL 18:41	32%	14%	2.2%	57%
F9 4411 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 13:05	FLL 15:47	33%	11%	2.8%	59%
WN 3072 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:15	FLL 22:55	34%	10%	2.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON