tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4849 Southwest Flight history → BWI 12:25 GRR 14:05 18% 3% 0.6% 62%
WN 4373 Southwest Flight history → BWI 22:35 GRR 00:20 28% 6% 0.7% 56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 12:33 → DTW 14:07DL 1546 3h 53m Detroit DTW 18:00 → GRR 19:01DL 5800 · flown by Republic 6h 28m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547 6h 03m 98% 89%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10WN 995 3h 05m Chicago MDW 10:15 → GRR 12:05WN 2779 5h 55m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709 3h 07m Chicago ORD 10:37 → GRR 12:50UA 1297 6h 35m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:35 → MDW 10:35WN 4217 2h 40m Chicago MDW 13:15 → GRR 15:05WN 1893 5h 30m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → BWI 10:28 → ORD 11:43AA 3446 · flown by Envoy 3h 13m Chicago ORD 14:56 → GRR 17:06AA 4117 · flown by Envoy 6h 38m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357 2h 51m Minneapolis MSP 16:02 → GRR 18:26DL 1555 6h 51m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 2h 33m Charlotte CLT 08:59 → GRR 10:52AA 1890 5h 50m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON