Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 952 at 11:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 952 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 11:45	GSP 13:15	11%	3%	0.6%	59%
WN 4437 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:00	GSP 21:40	24%	7%	0.6%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greenville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670	3h 14m Charlotte	CLT 11:07 → GSP 12:14AA 5802 · flown by Piedmont	5h 59m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 09:57 → GSP 10:57DL 2158	5h 17m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:16 → GSP 12:14DL 1725	5h 14m	99%	91%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:25 → BNA 07:20WN 874	2h 45m Nashville	BNA 10:05 → GSP 12:15WN 4622	5h 50m	100%	91%
American Details →	BWI 05:36 → ORD 06:59AA 4659 · flown by Republic	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 08:00 → GSP 11:01AA 3556 · flown by Envoy	5h 25m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:07 → GSP 14:01DL 1273	5h 44m	99%	87%
American Details →	BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708	2h 39m Charlotte	CLT 09:05 → GSP 10:12AA 5799 · flown by Piedmont	5h 10m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 15:07 → GSP 16:07DL 3095	5h 34m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON