Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3246 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3246 BWI 06:50 → HOU 09:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 958 BWI 20:00 → HOU 22:15 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3246 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:50	HOU 09:00	8%	1%	0.9%	81%
WN 4158 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:25	HOU 10:40	11%	2%	1.2%	92%
WN 956 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:00	HOU 12:15	13%	3%	1.4%	88%
WN 4254 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:00	HOU 15:15	25%	5%	0.9%	53%
WN 958 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:00	HOU 22:15	34%	8%	0.7%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON