Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 969 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 969 BWI 08:15 → JAX 10:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 4438 BWI 20:50 → JAX 23:00 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 969 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:15	JAX 10:20	8%	1%	0.7%	86%
WN 970 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 11:35	JAX 13:35	14%	2%	0.7%	73%
WN 971 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:00	JAX 20:10	26%	4%	0.9%	67%
WN 4438 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:50	JAX 23:00	29%	5%	1.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON