tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Boston, leaving 06:21, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 1h 05m Boston BOS 09:05 → JFK 10:24DL 5720 · flown by Republic 4h 03m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 1h 45m Charlotte CLT 08:11 → JFK 10:12AA 1029 5h 10m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 2h 35m Detroit DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751 5h 50m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034 6h 20m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 6h 20m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670 1h 34m Charlotte CLT 09:27 → JFK 11:29AA 374 5h 14m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 09:00 → BOS 10:38DL 5703 · flown by Republic 2h 57m Boston BOS 13:35 → JFK 15:10DL 5808 · flown by Republic 6h 10m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 5h 56m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON