Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 973 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 973 BWI 06:25 → LAS 08:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 976 BWI 19:30 → LAS 21:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 973 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:25	LAS 08:25	6%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 974 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:35	LAS 11:35	12%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 977 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 21:25	LAS 23:35	26%	8%	0.6%	50%
WN 1102 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:50	LAS 17:50	29%	9%	0.6%	54%
WN 976 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 19:30	LAS 21:40	30%	9%	0.6%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BWI 06:15 → STL 07:30WN 1109	1h 45m St Louis	STL 09:15 → LAS 10:40WN 2327	7h 25m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 11m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 20m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 04m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON