Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2318 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2318 BWI 07:00 → LAX 09:29 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 980 BWI 20:10 → LAX 22:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2318 United Flight history →	BWI 07:00	LAX 09:29	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 4322 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:10	LAX 09:35	14%	2%	0.6%	65%
UA 1546 United Flight history →	BWI 18:59	LAX 21:28	17%	7%	0.6%	66%
WN 193 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:50	LAX 16:15	25%	6%	0.6%	38%
WN 980 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:10	LAX 22:40	33%	10%	0.6%	47%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 50m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436	1h 45m Denver	DEN 09:35 → LAX 11:05WN 1569	8h 00m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	8h 05m	97%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON