Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Boston, leaving 06:21, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic	3h 00m Boston	BOS 11:00 → LGA 12:19DL 5755 · flown by Republic	5h 58m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764	7h 25m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	7h 02m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:00 → BOS 10:38DL 5703 · flown by Republic	2h 22m Boston	BOS 13:00 → LGA 14:27DL 5748 · flown by Republic	5h 27m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	2h 26m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50DL 2589	5h 42m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → LGA 13:42DL 467	6h 42m	99%	83%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10WN 995	2h 40m Chicago	MDW 09:50 → LGA 12:55WN 4044	6h 45m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:25 → BNA 07:20WN 874	2h 25m Nashville	BNA 09:45 → LGA 13:05WN 1966	6h 40m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BWI 15:46 → DFW 18:12AA 1629	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708	7h 59m	75%	50%
United Details →	BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590	50m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → LGA 23:15UA 1655	5h 43m	69%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON