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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487 4h 00m Nashville BNA 14:35 → LGB 16:50WN 1427 10h 05m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116 7h 44m 94% 82%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:00 → PHX 08:50WN 1049 2h 50m Phoenix PHX 11:40 → LGB 12:55WN 2505 8h 55m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:25 → LAS 08:25WN 973 3h 10m Las Vegas LAS 11:35 → LGB 12:45WN 2260 9h 20m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 12:50 → DEN 14:35WN 937 3h 40m Denver DEN 18:15 → LGB 20:00WN 1037 10h 10m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 08:05 → AUS 10:30WN 865 2h 45m Austin AUS 13:15 → LGB 14:10WN 4915 9h 05m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:35 → MDW 10:35WN 4217 2h 40m Chicago MDW 13:15 → LGB 15:30WN 4413 8h 55m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:40 → DEN 11:25WN 275 2h 00m Denver DEN 13:25 → LGB 14:50WN 4259 8h 10m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BWI 16:25 → PHX 18:15WN 1050 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 19:15 → LGB 20:35WN 4352 7h 10m 68% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON