Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4215 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 4215 BWI 08:20 → MCI 10:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 983 BWI 21:55 → MCI 23:45 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4215 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:20	MCI 10:05	8%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 3038 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:40	MCI 14:15	15%	3%	0.6%	58%
WN 983 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 21:55	MCI 23:45	21%	6%	0.7%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON