Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 984 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 984 BWI 06:35 → MCO 08:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 3663 BWI 15:21 → MCO 17:53 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 984 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:35	MCO 08:55	5%	1%	15.5%	88%
WN 986 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:05	MCO 10:20	10%	2%	15.5%	79%
WN 3658 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:30	MCO 11:50	12%	3%	15.5%	84%
F9 3273 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 06:25	MCO 08:52	13%	4%	9.5%	81%
WN 1171 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:30	MCO 12:50	13%	3%	17.2%	79%
WN 988 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 11:35	MCO 13:55	17%	5%	18.4%	61%
WN 4374 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:30	MCO 14:50	21%	7%	17.5%	62%
WN 3416 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 19:45	MCO 22:15	23%	10%	17.4%	66%
WN 172 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:45	MCO 20:20	25%	12%	17.3%	47%
WN 3777 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 18:40	MCO 21:10	26%	11%	15.6%	55%
WN 176 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:30	MCO 19:00	26%	11%	17.3%	42%
F9 4003 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 21:38	MCO 00:09	30%	13%	17.7%	59%
F9 3663 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 15:21	MCO 17:53	32%	12%	17.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON