Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 995 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 995 BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 999 BWI 20:55 → MDW 22:00 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 28% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 995 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:10	MDW 07:10	5%	1%	0.6%	89%
WN 4217 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:35	MDW 10:35	10%	2%	0.6%	68%
WN 435 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:30	MDW 13:30	15%	3%	0.6%	69%
WN 997 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:05	MDW 17:10	20%	4%	0.6%	66%
WN 1005 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 19:00	MDW 20:05	22%	6%	0.7%	73%
WN 999 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:55	MDW 22:00	25%	6%	0.6%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON