Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4024 at 15:15, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4024 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:15	MEM 16:30	18%	5%	0.6%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10WN 995	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → MEM 11:40WN 2824	6h 30m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 32m	99%	88%
United Details →	BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → MEM 11:05UA 5593 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → MEM 09:40DL 3137	4h 32m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27DL 2071	4h 47m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357	2h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	99%	86%
United Details →	BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898	3h 39m Houston	IAH 11:55 → MEM 13:41UA 5758 · flown by SkyWest	8h 41m	100%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BWI 19:17 → DFW 21:42AA 1626	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:31 → MEM 00:04 +1AA 1646	5h 47m	65%	42%
American Details →	BWI 18:39 → MIA 21:25AA 1619	1h 03m Miami	MIA 22:28 → MEM 23:55AA 1551	6h 16m	65%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON