Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1002 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1002 BWI 07:10 → MHT 08:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1668 BWI 22:35 → MHT 00:10 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1002 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:10	MHT 08:40	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 1003 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 11:20	MHT 12:50	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 1004 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 14:55	MHT 16:25	16%	4%	0.6%	86%
WN 4736 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:50	MHT 18:25	19%	4%	0.6%	78%
WN 1668 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:35	MHT 00:10	19%	4%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON