Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1183 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1183 BWI 06:00 → MIA 08:46 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 1665 BWI 19:27 → MIA 22:19 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1183 American Flight history →	BWI 06:00	MIA 08:46	11%	3%	1.3%	87%
WN 3278 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:20	MIA 11:00	19%	3%	1.0%	80%
WN 4737 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 11:45	MIA 14:20	31%	7%	1.7%	80%worse than usual
WN 235 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:30	MIA 23:20	34%	9%	1.0%	50%
AA 1619 American Flight history →	BWI 18:39	MIA 21:25	36%	10%	1.7%	64%
F9 1665 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 19:27	MIA 22:19	37%	17%	2.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON