Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2872 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2872 BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 863 BWI 22:05 → MSP 23:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 24% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2872 Delta Flight history →	BWI 06:20	MSP 07:54	5%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 2357 Delta Flight history →	BWI 11:35	MSP 13:11	10%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 2565 Delta Flight history →	BWI 19:10	MSP 21:00	16%	6%	0.6%	71%
WN 1016 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:40	MSP 15:20	23%	4%	0.6%	58%
WN 863 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:05	MSP 23:55	30%	7%	0.6%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON