Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4692 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4692 BWI 09:25 → MSY 11:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 4567 BWI 21:20 → MSY 23:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4692 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:25	MSY 11:05	11%	2%	0.7%	83%
WN 4323 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:20	MSY 18:00	27%	7%	1.4%	39%
WN 4567 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 21:20	MSY 23:05	27%	8%	6.7%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON