Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BWI 06:25 → LAS 08:25WN 973	2h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 10:50 → OAK 12:30WN 322	9h 05m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436	3h 05m Denver	DEN 10:55 → OAK 12:25WN 1577	9h 20m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:20 → SAN 08:35WN 1086	3h 10m San Diego	SAN 11:45 → OAK 13:25WN 3517	10h 05m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10WN 995	3h 00m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → OAK 12:40WN 3366	9h 30m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	7h 31m	86%	80%
Southwest Details →	BWI 07:10 → LAX 09:35WN 4322	2h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 11:55 → OAK 13:15WN 4893	9h 05m	99%	78%
Southwest Details →	BWI 16:40 → DEN 18:40WN 939	3h 30m Denver	DEN 22:10 → OAK 23:50WN 1650	10h 10m	99%	73%
Alaska Details →	BWI 16:19 → PDX 18:56AS 1369	58m Portland	PDX 19:54 → OAK 21:41AS 2036 · flown by Horizon	8h 22m	81%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BWI 19:30 → LAS 21:40WN 976	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 22:45 → OAK 00:20 +1WN 596	7h 50m	72%	47%
Southwest Details →	BWI 15:00 → SAN 17:20WN 1088	1h 00m San Diego	SAN 18:20 → OAK 19:55WN 3017	7h 55m	63%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON