Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 200 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:10	ONT 22:25	35%	10%	0.6%	48%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172	7h 55m	96%	85%
Southwest Details →	BWI 07:00 → PHX 08:50WN 1049	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 10:05 → ONT 11:20WN 431	7h 20m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 58m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436	3h 05m Denver	DEN 10:55 → ONT 12:10WN 4080	9h 05m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487	3h 20m Nashville	BNA 13:55 → ONT 16:00WN 855	9h 15m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	BWI 09:35 → MDW 10:35WN 4217	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 11:45 → ONT 13:50WN 2846	7h 15m	95%	79%
United Details →	BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412	1h 00m Denver	DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430	7h 17m	92%	79%
United Details →	BWI 15:03 → IAH 17:19UA 2095	3h 12m Houston	IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563	9h 52m	99%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON