Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4659 at 05:36 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 4659 BWI 05:36 → ORD 06:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 590 BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4659 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 05:36	ORD 06:59	4%	2%	1.0%	91%
UA 704 United Flight history →	BWI 10:32	ORD 11:48	7%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 709 United Flight history →	BWI 06:15	ORD 07:30	7%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 3446 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BWI 10:28	ORD 11:43	9%	3%	1.0%	92%
UA 2749 United Flight history →	BWI 08:16	ORD 09:30	11%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 4717 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 20:13	ORD 21:44	17%	6%	1.6%	68%
UA 791 United Flight history →	BWI 18:38	ORD 20:02	22%	7%	0.6%	53%
UA 590 United Flight history →	BWI 17:32	ORD 18:55	24%	6%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON