tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1369 Alaska Flight history → BWI 16:19 PDX 18:56 17% 4% 0.7% 84%
WN 1048 Southwest Flight history → BWI 13:50 PDX 16:20 24% 4% 0.6% 50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167 9h 18m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709 1h 30m Chicago ORD 09:00 → PDX 11:38UA 1994 8h 23m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 10h 18m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357 2h 47m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 9h 00m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 15m Detroit DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171 7h 28m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 02m Denver DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455 9h 43m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 7h 55m 96% 85%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436 1h 45m Denver DEN 09:35 → PDX 11:10WN 1667 8h 05m 100% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON