tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Midway, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1049 Southwest Flight history → BWI 07:00 PHX 08:50 8% 2% 0.6% 88%
WN 1050 Southwest Flight history → BWI 16:25 PHX 18:15 32% 7% 0.6% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 7h 23m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10WN 995 1h 30m Chicago MDW 08:40 → PHX 10:20WN 3016 7h 10m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 24m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 7h 34m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:25 → LAS 08:25WN 973 1h 15m Las Vegas LAS 09:40 → PHX 11:00WN 2310 7h 35m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709 1h 32m Chicago ORD 09:02 → PHX 11:03UA 2225 7h 48m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 3h 15m Charlotte CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986 9h 02m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 9h 23m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 56m Detroit DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070 6h 36m 93% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BWI 14:50 → SFO 17:30WN 1101 1h 15m San Francisco SFO 18:45 → PHX 21:05WN 3651 9h 15m 71% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON