Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4821 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4821 BWI 07:10 → PVD 08:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1063 BWI 19:25 → PVD 21:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4821 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:10	PVD 08:30	5%	1%	0.6%	93%
WN 4628 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:45	PVD 12:05	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 823 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:15	PVD 14:35	17%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 1062 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 16:55	PVD 18:20	21%	5%	0.6%	77%
WN 1063 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 19:25	PVD 21:00	24%	6%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON