Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 705 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 705 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 10:00	RIC 10:55	9%	2%	0.6%	76%
WN 2353 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 22:55	RIC 23:55	37%	5%	0.7%	37%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650	6h 16m	99%	90%
United Details →	BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 10:35 → RIC 13:57UA 3704 · flown by Republic	7h 42m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	2h 30m Detroit	DTW 10:09 → RIC 11:47DL 3166	5h 39m	98%	90%
American Details →	BWI 05:36 → ORD 06:59AA 4659 · flown by Republic	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 08:10 → RIC 11:30AA 4500 · flown by Republic	5h 54m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → RIC 14:05DL 1437	7h 05m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	BWI 09:35 → MDW 10:35WN 4217	2h 05m Chicago	MDW 12:40 → RIC 15:30WN 3579	5h 55m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic	55m Boston	BOS 08:55 → RIC 10:53DL 5622 · flown by Republic	4h 32m	94%	86%
United Details →	BWI 10:32 → ORD 11:48UA 704	2h 42m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → RIC 17:49UA 3523 · flown by Republic	7h 17m	100%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BWI 20:18 → CLT 21:55AA 1637	54m Charlotte	CLT 22:49 → RIC 00:04 +1AA 1882	3h 46m	73%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON