Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1086 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 1086 BWI 06:20 → SAN 08:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 1088 BWI 15:00 → SAN 17:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1086 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:20	SAN 08:35	14%	1%	0.6%	85%
WN 1181 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:30	SAN 11:45	25%	4%	0.6%	65%
WN 1089 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 21:05	SAN 23:25	36%	8%	0.7%	50%
WN 1088 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:00	SAN 17:20	37%	8%	0.6%	42%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	57m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	7h 18m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 19m	95%	80%
United Details →	BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898	1h 14m Houston	IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491	7h 51m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON