Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1090 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1090 BWI 09:25 → SAT 11:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 1092 BWI 20:50 → SAT 23:25 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1090 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:25	SAT 11:50	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 1091 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:40	SAT 16:10	19%	4%	0.6%	69%
WN 1092 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:50	SAT 23:25	26%	7%	0.7%	52%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BWI 06:50 → DAL 08:55WN 4403	55m Dallas	DAL 09:50 → SAT 10:55WN 2617	5h 05m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	49m Atlanta	ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43DL 1676	5h 03m	87%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON