Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 786 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33–35%.

Safest bet that day AS 786 BWI 07:03 → SEA 09:53 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AS 379 BWI 18:07 → SEA 21:00 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 786 Alaska Flight history →	BWI 07:03	SEA 09:53	20%	3%	0.7%	82%
WN 868 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:45	SEA 18:30	33%	6%	0.6%	50%
AS 379 Alaska Flight history →	BWI 18:07	SEA 21:00	35%	7%	0.7%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 39m	96%	86%
United Details →	BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 08:45 → SEA 11:38UA 2099	8h 23m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357	2h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 25m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON