Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2192 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 2192 BWI 06:15 → SFO 09:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1101 BWI 14:50 → SFO 17:30 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 22% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2192 United Flight history →	BWI 06:15	SFO 09:05	9%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 504 United Flight history →	BWI 18:59	SFO 21:50	25%	9%	0.6%	56%
WN 1101 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 14:50	SFO 17:30	34%	11%	0.5%	22%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 12m	97%	78%
United Details →	BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 08:50 → SFO 11:38UA 2610	8h 23m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	54m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 40m	91%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON