Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 186 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 12:50	SJC 15:25	20%	4%	0.6%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BWI 06:25 → LAS 08:25WN 973	1h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 09:55 → SJC 11:30WN 439	8h 05m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436	1h 40m Denver	DEN 09:30 → SJC 11:00WN 2384	7h 55m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383	8h 41m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 50m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10WN 995	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → SJC 12:30WN 3752	9h 20m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	8h 20m	97%	85%
United Details →	BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898	1h 44m Houston	IAH 10:00 → SJC 12:03UA 1882	9h 03m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	10h 00m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON